Assessment of the current and future forest fire danger in Bavaria by means of M-68 fire danger index, regarding increasing drought, changing phenology of ground vegetation and forest stocking

Due to climate change, a radical change of the forest fire danger in Bavaria is expected. Therefore, the influences of climate and forest state (e.g. tree species composition and phenology) changes on forest fire danger are analysed on a time-scale of several decades. To realise this, calculations will be done for different SRES-scenario runs. The foundations for this work lie in the measurement and modelling of litter moisture and ignitability, soil water balance and the phenology of ground vegetation. Finally, an assessment and mapping of the local forest fire susceptibility in Bavaria and the preparation of a set of guidelines for practitioners are planned.

Partners in the project include Wood Research Munich (Technische Universität München, Chair of Wood Science and Technology), the subject group Climate and Water Protection of the Bavarian State Forest Research Institute (LWF) as well as the Agrometeorological Research and Consultation Department Braunschweig of the German Meteorological Service (DWD).

Contact person:

Christian Schunk


2009 - 2012