KLIP 10

Trees in an extreme future - Statistics of extreme values and distribution simulation as well as impacts of climate extremes

We analyze recent and future frequencies and intensities of climatic extreme events in Bavaria for various climate simulations and regionalizations. The stress inducing climate extreme values found in “Project M27” shall be calculated for further regionalizations and emission scenarios. In addition, the distribution simulating model “PHENOFIT” shall be tested for European tree species and the results shall be compared to other approaches dealing with future suitability of tree species (projects KLIP 3 “Trees for the future” and E45 “Suitability of tree species under increasing drought”). The impacts of the stress inducing factors on tree species shall be grasped for the past and then be modeled for the future. Therefore, data of the WKS, the ASP, the SFB Kranzberg, and tree ring data of the Technische Universität München and the University of Applied Sciences Weihenstephan are analyzed and sowing experiments are made.

Funded by the Bavarian State Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.

Contact person:

FR Steffen Taeger, Philipp Gloning

Duration:

2009 - 2012