FORKAST
Ecological impacts of changes in phenology on the vegetation of Bavaria in the course of global climate change
This project is part of the Bavarian research cooperation FORKAST (Impacts of climate on ecosystems and climatic adaption strategies) and deals with phenology as a key indicator for changes in Bavaria’s ecosystems (forest, grassland, pasture and peat land) in the course of recent global climate change. This research project is divided into two subprojects:
- Acquisition and analysis of phenological reactions of selected plants on extreme weather events
In cooperation with other FORKAST subprojects, which simulate expected extreme events (precipitation, temperature, water level) experimentally, phenological data is collected in the Alps, in the northeast Bavarian low mountain range and in floodplain ecosystems. Moreover, the phenology of species associated to sensible aquatic ecosystems is examined comparatively. Furthermore, a phenological meta-analysis, based on literature data and data of the manipulative FORKAST-experiments is conducted, which provides supraregional meaningful knowledge of the impact of global climate change and extreme weather events on ecosystem processes. - Phenological time course analysis
With the help of innovative methods of extreme value statistics phenological anomalies like extreme early or late onset dates of certain phenological stages of forest and fruit trees as well as bushes, flowering plants and agricultural crops are examined. With that it is possible to quantify changes in the onset probability in regard of the last 50 years. Subsequently the relation between onset probabilities of phenological anomalies and weather conditions in the corresponding time course are going to be examined.
Contact persons:
Part 1: Christine Cornelius
Part 2: Dr. Christoph Schleip
Duration:
2009 - 2012